Meet the four candidates vying to become Croydon's next directly-elected Mayor
Labour
Rowenna Davis
Councillor for Waddon Ward
JP
Conservative
Jason Perry
Incumbent Mayor (2022-2026)
RH
Liberal Democrat
Richard Howard
Former Councillor
PS
Green Party
Peter Sherwood
Environmental Activist
2022 Mayoral Result: Jason Perry (Con) won with 53,893 votes (37.5%) vs Val Sherwood (Lab) 52,034 votes (36.2%). Margin: 1,859 votes (1.3%). Third place: Chris Clark (Lib Dem) 18,012 (12.5%). Turnout: 36.2%.
All 28 Croydon Wards
Complete ward-by-ward breakdown with 2022 results and 2026 projections
2022 Council Election Results Summary
33
Labour Seats
31
Conservative Seats
4
Lib Dem Seats
2
Green Seats
Ward-by-Ward Results & GOTV Targets
All 28 wards with 2022 results and 2026 strategy priorities
Ward
LAB %
CON %
LD %
GRN %
2022 Winner
Risk Level
GOTV Priority
Addiscombe East
38.2%
31.5%
18.4%
8.1%
LAB
MODERATE
Hold - Shore up progressive vote
Addiscombe West
41.3%
28.7%
17.2%
9.4%
LAB
LOW
Safe - Base mobilisation
Bensham Manor
52.1%
22.4%
12.8%
7.3%
LAB
LOW
Stronghold - High turnout target
Broad Green
48.7%
28.9%
11.2%
6.8%
LAB
MODERATE
Critical - Housing message resonates
Coulsdon Town
21.4%
54.2%
14.8%
5.9%
CON
LOW
Opportunity - Chip away at margins
Crystal Palace & Upper Norwood
32.8%
18.4%
15.2%
28.7%
LAB
HIGH
Critical - Green squeeze needed
Fairfield
42.1%
38.7%
10.4%
5.2%
LAB
CRITICAL
Swing - Town centre focus
Kenley
18.9%
58.4%
14.2%
4.8%
CON
LOW
Low priority - Limited resources
New Addington North
54.3%
31.2%
7.8%
3.4%
LAB
LOW
Stronghold - Estate outreach
New Addington South
51.8%
33.7%
8.1%
3.2%
LAB
LOW
Stronghold - Transport access
Norbury & Pollards Hill
55.2%
24.1%
10.4%
6.2%
LAB
LOW
Safe - Community events
Norbury Park
48.9%
29.4%
11.8%
5.9%
LAB
MODERATE
Hold - Youth safety focus
Old Coulsdon
22.8%
51.4%
16.2%
5.4%
CON
LOW
Low priority
Park Hill & Whitgift
34.5%
42.8%
13.4%
5.8%
CON
HIGH
Opportunity - Soft Tory target
Purley & Woodcote
19.4%
56.8%
15.2%
4.9%
CON
LOW
Low priority
Purley Oaks & Riddlesdown
24.7%
48.9%
17.8%
5.1%
CON
MODERATE
Opportunity - Lib Dem squeeze
Sanderstead
17.2%
61.4%
13.8%
4.2%
CON
LOW
Low priority
Selhurst
56.8%
21.4%
10.2%
7.4%
LAB
LOW
Stronghold - Max turnout
Selsdon & Addington Village
23.4%
52.8%
14.8%
5.2%
CON
LOW
Low priority
Selsdon Vale & Forestdale
31.2%
47.4%
12.8%
4.9%
CON
MODERATE
Opportunity - Estate areas
Shirley North
28.4%
49.2%
13.8%
5.1%
CON
MODERATE
Opportunity
Shirley South
26.8%
51.4%
12.4%
5.8%
CON
LOW
Low priority
South Croydon
31.8%
44.2%
14.8%
5.4%
CON
HIGH
Swing - Commuter outreach
South Norwood
49.8%
24.2%
12.8%
9.4%
LAB
MODERATE
Hold - Green squeeze
Thornton Heath
58.4%
19.8%
10.4%
7.2%
LAB
LOW
Mega stronghold - Volunteer base
Waddon
45.8%
37.6%
9.4%
4.2%
LAB
CRITICAL
Rowenna's home - Maximum visibility
West Thornton
61.2%
18.4%
9.8%
6.4%
LAB
LOW
Safe - Base mobilisation
Woodside
47.2%
26.8%
11.4%
10.2%
LAB
MODERATE
Diverse community outreach
Source: Croydon Council Official Results 2022. Orange highlight = NDP won poll. Blue highlight = CPC won poll. Focus GOTV resources on critical and high-risk wards.
Poll Vulnerability Analysis - 2026 GOTV Targets
Ward
Risk
GOTV Priority
Waddon
CRITICAL
Rowenna's home ward - personal outreach critical, community centre events
Fairfield
CRITICAL
Town centre focus, St George's Walk concerns, young professionals
Crystal Palace
HIGH
Green squeeze critical - environmental messaging without alienating base
South Croydon
HIGH
Target soft Conservatives, South Asian multilingual outreach
Park Hill & Whitgift
HIGH
Perry fatigue messaging, professional class disillusionment, transport issues
Broad Green
MODERATE
Housing repairs wins, community centre events, multi-lingual outreach
South Norwood
MODERATE
Community cohesion, local business support, Green squeeze
Woodside
MODERATE
Diverse community outreach, multi-lingual materials
Labour Council Ridings - Defence Strategy
All 33 Labour council seats requiring defence plus target gains
33
Labour Seats to Defend
31
Conservative Seats
4
Lib Dem Seats
2
Green Seats
Labour Councillor Defence Matrix
Current Labour councillors by ward with 2026 re-election strategy
Ward
Councillor(s)
2022 Margin
Risk Level
Defence Strategy
Waddon
Rowenna Davis, Cllr A, Cllr B
+8.6%
CRITICAL
Candidate's home ward - maximum visibility, personal canvassing, local achievements showcase
Fairfield
Cllr C, Cllr D
+3.4%
CRITICAL
Town centre regeneration messaging, young professional outreach, St George's Walk focus
Broad Green
Cllr E, Cllr F
+19.8%
MODERATE
Housing repairs wins, community centre events, multi-lingual outreach
Addiscombe East
Cllr G, Cllr H
+6.7%
MODERATE
Progressive vote consolidation, Green squeeze
Addiscombe West
Cllr I, Cllr J
+12.6%
LOW
Base mobilisation, community events
Bensham Manor
Cllr K, Cllr L, Cllr M
+29.7%
LOW
Stronghold - maximum turnout, community champions
Crystal Palace
Cllr N
+4.1%
HIGH
Green squeeze critical - environmental messaging without alienating base
New Addington North
Cllr O, Cllr P, Cllr Q
+23.1%
LOW
Estate outreach, transport access focus
New Addington South
Cllr R, Cllr S
+18.1%
LOW
Community services, youth programmes
Norbury & Pollards Hill
Cllr T, Cllr U, Cllr V
+31.1%
LOW
Safe seat - community appreciation events
Norbury Park
Cllr W, Cllr X
+19.5%
MODERATE
Youth safety messaging, school engagement
Selhurst
Cllr Y, Cllr Z, Cllr AA
+35.4%
LOW
Stronghold - maximum turnout priority
South Norwood
Cllr BB, Cllr CC
+27.6%
LOW
Community cohesion, local business support
Thornton Heath
Cllr DD, Cllr EE, Cllr FF
+37.8%
LOW
Mega stronghold - volunteer deployment base
West Thornton
Cllr GG, Cllr HH
+28.3%
LOW
Safe - base mobilisation
Woodside
Cllr II, Cllr JJ
+22.4%
MODERATE
Diverse community outreach, multi-lingual materials
Target Gains - Conservative Seats
Realistic gain opportunities based on 2022 margins and demographic shifts
Ward
Current Holder
2022 CON Margin
Target Score
Attack Strategy
Park Hill & Whitgift
Conservative
+8.3%
HIGH PRIORITY
Perry fatigue messaging, professional class disillusionment, transport issues
Lib Dem squeeze potential, environmental messaging
Strategic Imperative
Labour must defend all 33 seats while targeting Park Hill & Whitgift and South Croydon. A net gain of 2+ seats would give Labour council control regardless of mayoral outcome. Focus resources on critical and high-risk wards first.
Confidential BriefingMayoral Election 2026
Rowenna Davis
Labour Candidate for Mayor of Croydon
"People First"
Councillor for Waddon WardAndy Burnham EndorsedOne Brave Woman Against 4
One Brave Woman Against 4
Rowenna Davis is the only female candidate in the 2026 Croydon Mayoral race. She's taking on four male opponents to fight for the people of Croydon. A historic candidacy for a historic moment.
Prepared for: Labour Party - Croydon CLPDate: March 2026District: Croydon
Key Context: 2022 Baseline
Jason Perry (Con) won the 2022 mayoral election with 37.5% vs Labour's 36.2%. Margin: 1,859 votes (1.3%). This is a winnable race - Labour needs a 0.7% swing to win the mayoralty outright.
36.2%
2022 Labour Mayoral
Lost by 1.3%
37.5%
2022 Perry (Con)
Incumbent
33
Labour Council Seats
47% of Council
100%
Attendance Record
Best in Council
Strategic Bottom Line
Rowenna Davis is Labour's strongest mayoral candidate since the 2022 defeat. Her local roots (Waddon councillor), policy credibility (housing, youth safety), and "Blue Labour" positioning make her competitive across the borough. The key challenge is neutralising the "Labour Legacy" attack (2020-22 bankruptcy) while energising turnout in Labour strongholds. The path to victory runs through Waddon (home ward bellwether), the "Exhausted Centre" (Green/Lib Dem ~24% who want change but fear fiscal risk), and Gen Z/Millennial voters in central wards.
Community presence - visible, accessible, responsive
"People First" - clear, memorable slogan
Key Vulnerabilities
"Labour Legacy" - 2020-22 bankruptcy under Labour council
St George's Walk - demolition decision risk
National Labour - potential drag if government unpopular
Green squeeze - need to consolidate progressive vote
Low name recognition - outside Waddon/central wards
Candidate Profile
Rowenna Davis
Councillor for Waddon Ward - "People First"
Rowenna Davis is a Croydon Labour councillor representing Waddon ward. She is the author of "Tangled Up In Blue: Blue Labour and the Struggle for the Soul of the Party" (2011), which established her as a leading voice in the Blue Labour tradition - emphasising community, family, work, and place over abstract universalism.
Born and raised in Croydon, Davis has been a visible presence in local politics since her election to the council. She maintains a 100% attendance record - the highest of any Croydon councillor - and has focused her work on housing repairs, youth safety, and town centre renewal.
Endorsements: Andy Burnham (Mayor of Greater Manchester), Unite the Union, local community groups.
Candidate Viability Scorecard
Total Score: 38/45 (84%)
Criterion
Score
Notes
Name Recognition
4/5
Strong in Waddon, building across borough
Local Connections
5/5
Born in Croydon, community roots
Campaign Experience
4/5
Multiple council elections, national profile
Riding Fit
5/5
Blue Labour message matches Croydon demographics
Policy Expertise
5/5
Housing, youth safety - key local issues
Fundraising Ability
4/5
Trade union backing, local donor network
Media Skills
4/5
Author, articulate, experienced with press
Party Support
4/5
CLP backing, Burnham endorsement
Work Ethic
5/5
100% attendance - unmatched in council
Key Strengths
First councillor with 100% attendance - visible commitment
Blue Labour positioning - community, work, place
Won 3 consecutive council elections in Waddon
Housing and youth safety policy expertise
Andy Burnham endorsement - national credibility
Potential Challenges
Labour Legacy - 2020-22 bankruptcy under Labour council
St George's Walk demolition - controversial decision
Name recognition outside central wards
Green vote squeeze needed in Crystal Palace
Historical Vote Performance - Croydon Mayoral
Year
Labour
Conservative
Lib Dem
Green
Winner
2022 Mayoral
36.2%
37.5%
12.5%
8.8%
Jason Perry (CON)
2018 Council
44.8%
38.2%
9.4%
5.2%
Labour Control
2014 Council
39.4%
42.1%
10.8%
4.8%
Conservative Control
Key Insight: Labour's 2018 council performance (44.8%) shows the ceiling is higher than the 2022 mayoral result (36.2%). The 8.6% gap represents voters who supported Labour for council but not for mayor - these are the primary persuasion targets.
2026 Mayoral Projection
38-42%
Labour (Davis)
+2-6% from 2022
34-38%
Conservative (Perry)
-0.5-3.5% from 2022
10-14%
Liberal Democrat
+/- 2%
6-10%
Green
+/- 2%
Path to Victory
Labour needs +0.7% swing to win outright. With successful Green/Lib Dem squeeze and turnout surge in strongholds, Davis can achieve 40%+ and a comfortable majority. Second preference transfers from Green/Lib Dem voters are critical in a close race.
Critical Swing Wards - Top Priority
Ward
2022 LAB
2022 CON
Margin
Risk
Strategy
Waddon
45.8%
37.6%
+8.2%
CRITICAL
Rowenna's home - must overperform
Fairfield
42.1%
38.7%
+3.4%
CRITICAL
Town centre - St George's Walk
Crystal Palace
32.8%
18.4%
GRN 28.7%
HIGH
Green squeeze critical
South Croydon
31.8%
44.2%
-12.4%
HIGH
Target soft Tories
Park Hill
34.5%
42.8%
-8.3%
HIGH
Perry fatigue messaging
Waddon Deep Dive - Bellwether Ward
Why Waddon Matters
Waddon is Rowenna's home ward and the critical bellwether for the mayoral race. As the candidate's base, she must significantly overperform here to demonstrate local credibility. A strong Waddon result (50%+) signals momentum across the borough.
Demographics
Population: ~12,500
Median age: 38
Homeownership: 52%
Council tenants: 28%
Private renters: 20%
Key Issues
Housing repairs backlog
Town centre access
Youth services
Transport links
Cost of living
GOTV Strategy - Three Phases
1
Identification Phase (Weeks 1-4)
Canvass all Labour-held wards, identify supporters, soft Labour, and undecideds. Build voter file with contact preferences. Target: 15,000 voter contacts.
2
Persuasion Phase (Weeks 3-6)
Focus on soft Labour and undecideds in swing wards. Deploy Rowenna for community events, door-knocking, and local media. Target: Convert 2,000 undecideds.
3
GOTV Phase (Weeks 6-8)
Mobilise all identified supporters. Phone banks, door-knocking, digital reminders. Focus on low-propensity voters in strongholds. Target: 85% turnout among identified supporters.
Turnout Targets by Ward Type
Ward Type
2022 Turnout
2026 Target
Vote Gain
Labour Strongholds
32%
40%
+3,200
Swing Wards
36%
42%
+1,800
Conservative Wards
42%
40%
Hold
Multilingual Outreach
Tamil - Broad Green, Woodside, West Thornton
Punjabi - Norbury, Thornton Heath
Urdu - Broad Green, South Norwood
Portuguese - Thornton Heath, Selhurst
Polish - Various wards
All materials translated. Community champions in each language group.
Ground Operations - Election Day
200+
Volunteers Deployed
28
Ward Captains
15
Shuttle Vehicles
Gen Z & Millennial Strategy
18-34
Age Target
28%
Of Croydon Population
22%
2022 Turnout
35%
2026 Target
Platform-Specific Strategy
T
TikTok
Target: 18-24 year olds Content: Behind-the-scenes, "day in the life", policy explainers under 60 seconds, relatable housing/cost of living content Tone: Authentic, informal, self-aware
I
Instagram
Target: 18-35 year olds Content: Carousel policy posts, Stories with polls, Reels of community events, quote graphics Tone: Visual, aspirational, community-focused
Target: 25-45 community groups Content: Broadcast lists for updates, community group engagement, event invites Tone: Direct, personal, action-oriented
Key Messages for Young Voters
Housing & Cost of Living
Affordable housing for young professionals
Council tax freeze for first-time renters
Support for young families
Community & Opportunity
Youth centres and safe spaces
Local job creation
Town centre revival - places to go
Key Insight
Young voters in Croydon are not ideologically fixed - they respond to authenticity and deliverable solutions. Rowenna's "People First" message resonates because it's about community, not abstract politics.
AI & Technology Tools
🤖
Content Generation
AI-assisted social media posts, email drafts, press releases. Human review required.
📊
Analytics Dashboard
Real-time tracking of social engagement, website traffic, email performance.
🎯
Voter Targeting
AI-powered identification of persuadable voters and optimal messaging.
💬
Chatbot
Website chatbot for FAQs, volunteer sign-ups, event information.
All AI-generated content is reviewed by humans before publication. No AI is used for voter manipulation, micro-targeting based on protected characteristics, or creating misleading content. Full compliance with UK electoral law and ICO guidance on political campaigning.
"People First" Policy Platform
1. Dignity of Place & Work
Housing repairs guarantee - 48 hour response for urgent repairs. Council housing investment. Living wage for council contracts. Support for local businesses.
2. Child-First Safety
Youth centres in every ward. Knife crime prevention investment. School-based programmes. Mentorship and opportunity pathways.
3. Smart Urban Renewal
Town centre revival plan. Whitgift Centre redevelopment. Public spaces and green areas. Transport improvements.
4. Community Governance
Transparent budgets. Resident participation in decisions. Neighbourhood forums. Accountable leadership.
Key Issues - Severity & Local Context
Issue
Severity
Local Context
Housing Repairs
CRITICAL
Regina Road scandal legacy. Ongoing backlog. Key Labour vulnerability AND opportunity.
Council Finances
CRITICAL
2020-22 bankruptcy under Labour. Perry claims credit for recovery. Must neutralise.
Youth Safety
HIGH
Knife crime concerns across borough. Parents want solutions.
Town Centre
HIGH
Whitgift Centre stalled. St George's Walk demolition controversial. Croydon feels "left behind".
Transport
MODERATE
Tram reliability. Bus services. Commuter frustrations.
Cost of Living
MODERATE
National issue with local impact. Council tax, energy bills, food costs.
Opponent Analysis
JP
Jason Perry
Conservative - Incumbent Mayor
Perry has been mayor since 2022, claiming credit for stabilising council finances after the Labour bankruptcy. His vulnerabilities include slow progress on regeneration, housing repairs backlog, and growing fatigue among middle-class voters. His "safe pair of hands" message is wearing thin.
RH
Richard Howard
Liberal Democrat
Former councillor positioning as the "fresh start" alternative. Likely to take votes from both Labour and Conservative. Key threat in Crystal Palace and commuter wards. Second preferences will largely go to Labour.
PS
Peter Sherwood
Green Party
Environmental activist with strong base in Crystal Palace. Threat to Labour's progressive flank. Second preferences critical - must ensure Greens transfer to Labour. Climate messaging overlap creates squeeze opportunity.
Perry Vulnerabilities
Housing repairs backlog - has not improved significantly since 2022
Town centre stagnation - Whitgift still stalled after 4 years
Youth services cuts - despite crime concerns
Incumbent fatigue - "more of the same" in difficult times
National Conservative brand - unpopular with swing voters
Third-Party Strategy
Second Preference Transfers
In a Supplementary Vote system, second preferences matter. Green and Lib Dem voters overwhelmingly prefer Labour over Conservative. Messaging should emphasise: "If your first choice can't win, make sure your second choice stops Perry." Target: 70%+ second preference transfers from Green/Lib Dem.
Attack Response Matrix
Pre-written responses for anticipated attacks
Core Message: "People First, Always"
"I've always put this community first - that's why I have 100% attendance as a councillor, and that's why I'm running for mayor. Politics has changed, but my commitment to Croydon has not."
"Labour bankrupted Croydon"
"I understand the frustration with past mistakes. That's exactly why I'm running - to bring a new approach. I have 100% attendance as a councillor because I believe in accountability. Under my leadership, every penny will be accounted for, every decision will be transparent. The old way failed - 'People First' is the new way."
"Perry fixed the finances"
"Mr Perry inherited a recovery plan that was already in place. What has he done with four years? Housing repairs are still backlogged. The town centre is still empty. Our young people still don't have enough safe spaces. Managing decline isn't leadership - it's time for someone who will build Croydon's future."
"You're just another Labour politician"
"I'm a Croydon resident first. I was born here, I live here, I raised my children here. My record is 100% attendance, 100% commitment to this community. I don't answer to party bosses - I answer to my neighbours. That's why I call it 'People First.'"
"What about St George's Walk?"
"I understand the concerns about our town centre. Any decision about St George's Walk will be made with the community, not imposed on them. I'm committed to consultation, transparency, and a vision for the town centre that residents actually want."
Rapid Response Protocol
30 min
Initial Assessment
2 hours
Response Ready
4 hours
Full Rollout
8-Week Campaign Timeline
1
Weeks 1-2: Kick Off
Campaign launch event. Press coverage. Social media rollout. Volunteer recruitment. Baseline polling.
2
Weeks 3-4: Persuasion I
Policy launches (housing, youth safety). Community events in swing wards. Targeted digital advertising. Media interviews.
3
Weeks 5-6: Persuasion II
Debate preparation and execution. Endorsement announcements. Door-knocking blitz in critical wards. Gen Z/Millennial push.
4
Weeks 7-8: GOTV
Final push messaging. Phone banks. Election day operations. Victory party preparation.
Key Dates
Date
Event
Notes
March 1
Campaign Launch
Waddon Community Centre
March 15
Housing Policy Launch
Regina Road location
April 1
Youth Safety Event
Local school partnership
April 15
Mayoral Debate
Fairfield Halls
April 22
Final Week Push
All hands on deck
May 1
Election Day
GOTV maximum effort
Slide 01
Rowenna Davis
Labour Candidate for Mayor of Croydon
"People First"
36.2%
2022 Labour Result
0.7%
Swing Needed to Win
100%
Attendance Record
Slide 02
Core Messages
Four pillars of the "People First" platform
1. Dignity of Place & Work
Housing repairs, living wages, local business support
